New research has pinpointed for the first time, when climate change will become the norm in cities around the world.
What do we mean by the ‘norm’ you might ask?
Essentially, at some point in the future,” the coldest year will be hotter than the hottest year in the past 150 years” according to Camilo Mora; the lead author of the research group from the University of Hawaii.
To put that into perspective: the world as a whole had its hottest year on record in 2005. This new study suggests that by the middle of this century, every year that follows will probably be hotter than that record-setting scorcher.
The year in which this new norm is likely to occur has been predicted by a meta-analysis; a statistical analysis of trends in data. The team used data from 39 climate models which have been autonomously established by climate scientists from 12 countries.
As a result of the analysis a list was created associating cities with the predicted year in which local temperatures will be no longer in line with historical trends. If you look at the list, you will see two predicted years. The first, referred to as RCP8.5 works under the assumption that there will be no change in the amount of Greenhouse Gases (GHG’s) entering the atmosphere by 2100. The second; RCP4.5 offers a more optimistic approach and assumes that there will be a moderate reduction in GHG emissions by 2100.
The map shown demonstrates when this change is likely to occur (red/orange being sooner than green/blue) as a function of latitude across the globe. The global mean is around the year 2047. Interestingly, the tropics (the hatched area) have a mean of 2038, only 25 years from now.
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The findings of this study were published Oct. 9 in the journal Nature ans can accessed here: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7470/full/nature12540.html
A full list of cities and a searchable world map is online here: http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/mora/PublicationsCopyRighted/Data.html
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